The Real Cost of Expanding to the US Isn't Money — It's Timing

Jan de Vries · 2026-09-23

Most European founders start thinking about the US long before they're ready to move. It usually comes up while you're still raising seed capital and still arguing about product-market fit back home. And here's the thing — what makes US expansion expensive is rarely the decision itself. It's the order you do things in. Customers, founder presence, immigration, fundraising, structure, banking, and the evidence file — they all wait on each other. Get the sequence wrong, and you'll burn cash and attention on things that could've waited. ### Decide your timing before the market decides it for you The case for starting earlier is in the data. Index Ventures' research, published as "Winning in the US" and drawn from an analysis of over 500 VC-backed startups plus a survey of 140 companies, found that 64% of companies now expand to the US at pre-seed or seed stage, compared to 33% across 2015–2019. The longer series is the more interesting number: close to 60% expanded before a Series A between 2008 and 2014. So the current figure is a return to older behavior rather than a straight line upwards. Either way, preparing earlier isn't the same as committing earlier. International expansion is one of the few decisions where that difference costs real money. Both directions carry a cost: - Too early burns the runway and splits the founders' attention - Too late hands the market to whoever moves first The test to watch is repeatability. One enthusiastic buyer in Boston is a lead. Four buyers with the same problem, similar procurement patterns, and a clear willingness to pay are a much stronger signal of repeatable demand. Give the pilots a full quarter before hiring a sales leader. Two enterprise conversations in six weeks tell you very little about the sales cycle, and American enthusiasm in early meetings is easy to mistake for buying intent. A full quarter of pilot data gives you a much better basis for separating what genuinely has to be local from what can stay in Europe. ### Plan for founder presence: it matters more than most teams expect US expansion usually becomes founder-led before it becomes headcount-led. Enterprise buyers want the person who can change the roadmap. Investors want to read the founder rather than the deck. First hires need someone to sit next to. None of that amounts to relocation. What it amounts to is knowing which activities need a body in the room, how often, and for how long. So build the 90-day founder calendar before committing to a move to the US. Plot the customer meetings, the investor roadshow, and the hiring work, then hold that calendar against the founder's current immigration position. Some of it will fit. Some of it will need different authorization. That's the part worth discovering in March rather than in September, if you plan your trip in September. ### Treat immigration as a business dependency, not end-stage paperwork This is a workstream that's often treated as paperwork and dealt with late, even though it can carry one of the longest lead times. It helps to know what the main founder route actually asks for. O-1A covers extraordinary ability in the sciences, education, business, or athletics, shown by sustained national or international acclaim. The petition needs either a major internationally recognized award or at least three of eight evidentiary criteria, among them recognized prizes, published material about the founder, judging the work of others, original contributions of major significance, a critical role for a distinguished organization, and high remuneration. Meeting three criteria is only the starting point, not the outcome. USCIS reads the record as a whole, so three well-documented criteria usually carry more weight than five weak ones. Depending on the facts, counsel may also raise L-1, E-2, EB-2 NIW (national interest waiver), or the International Entrepreneur Rule. They're not interchangeable, and two of them can be ruled out before anyone examines merit. E-2 requires the founder's nationality to be covered by a qualifying treaty, so it's not a universal founder option. The International Entrepreneur Rule is another path, though it's narrower and requires a higher threshold of investment or government awards. > "The order you do things in matters more than the speed at which you do them." That's really the whole point. You don't need to have every answer before you start. You just need to know which question comes next.