Putin's Silent War on NATO: What a Latvian Analyst Reveals

Jan de Vries · 2026-11-12

A Latvian military analyst has issued a stark warning: Moscow is plotting to break NATO without firing a single shot. Instead of tanks and missiles, the Kremlin is using sabotage, intimidation, and political pressure to weaken the alliance and divide its members. It's a strategy that operates in the shadows, and it's already underway. ### The Silent War Forget the Cold War-era images of massed troops on the Fulda Gap. The new battlefield is invisible—cyber attacks, disinformation campaigns, and covert operations designed to erode trust and sow chaos. The analyst, speaking from Latvia—a NATO member that shares a border with Russia—knows this threat firsthand. "They don't need to invade," the analyst said. "They just need to make us doubt each other." That doubt is the real weapon. If allies stop trusting one another, the alliance crumbles from within. And that's exactly what Putin wants. ### How Does It Work? - **Sabotage:** From cutting undersea cables to disrupting power grids, Moscow's operatives are testing NATO's resilience. These aren't random acts; they're calculated moves to see how quickly the alliance responds. - **Intimidation:** Military exercises near borders, aggressive rhetoric, and even targeted assassinations abroad send a clear message: Russia is willing to go far. - **Political Pressure:** Funding fringe parties, spreading propaganda, and exploiting existing divisions—like those over energy or immigration—to weaken unity. ### Why Latvia? Latvia is on the front line. With a large Russian-speaking minority and a history of Soviet occupation, it's a prime target for influence operations. The analyst's warning isn't theoretical—it's based on what they're seeing on the ground. "We've intercepted communications, tracked disinformation campaigns, and seen the patterns," the analyst explained. "This is not speculation." ### The Bigger Picture NATO's strength has always been its unity. Article 5—the principle that an attack on one is an attack on all—is the cornerstone of that unity. But if Moscow can undermine that principle without a shot, it wins. And it's not just Latvia. From the Baltic states to the Black Sea, similar tactics are being used across Eastern Europe. The goal is to create a sense of insecurity and instability, making it harder for NATO to respond effectively. ### What Can Be Done? - **Increase intelligence sharing:** Allies need to be transparent about the threats they face. - **Strengthen cyber defenses:** The next war will be fought online, and NATO must be ready. - **Counter disinformation:** Educate citizens and support independent media. - **Show resolve:** Military exercises and visible unity can deter aggression. ### The Bottom Line The threat is real, but it's not unstoppable. Awareness is the first step. As the analyst put it, "We need to wake up before it's too late." So, the next time you hear about a cyber attack or a political scandal in Europe, look closer. It might just be part of Putin's silent war.