Europe's Space Ambitions: Why Bigger Isn't Always Better

Jan de Vries · 2026-09-10

When the CEOs of Airbus, Leonardo, and Thales recently urged Brussels to approve a pan-European space company, they argued that size would help them compete with SpaceX. But here's the thing: bigger doesn't automatically mean sovereign. Europe's space sovereignty hinges on something more fundamental – the ability to see, track, and protect what's already up there. ### The Push for Consolidation The logic behind merging these three aerospace giants is simple: scale. As Lorenzo Mariani of Leonardo put it, "Without co-operation, European industries will never reach the critical mass and the capability to really be worldwide champions." It's a compelling argument, especially when you're up against Elon Musk's SpaceX. But is it enough? ### Scale Isn't Sovereignty Airbus and Thales are right that Europe needs space companies capable of competing with SpaceX. But building big companies alone won't bring genuine space sovereignty. Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) is getting crowded – with commercial spacecraft, military assets, and debris. In this environment, the ability to detect, track, and attribute activity in orbit becomes vital. Europe has rightly invested in sovereign constellations and space infrastructure. But having more satellites isn't enough. Those satellites need protection, and protection starts with knowing what's going on. It's like having a fleet of ships but no radar to see incoming threats. ### Europe's Surveillance Efforts Europe is starting to strengthen its space surveillance. Initiatives like the EU Space Surveillance and Tracking (EU SST) partnership and IRIS² – the EU's multi-orbit satellite constellation for ultra-secure communications and high-speed broadband – are steps in the right direction. Poland has agreed to invest around $745 million in IRIS², and Germany has proposed a separate national LEO military satellite constellation. Europe now holds 27.7% of the global Space Situational Awareness (SSA) market, second only to the US with 42.4%. But concerns remain. ### Flying Blind in a Dangerous Sky Without a clear picture of what's happening in orbit, Europe will struggle to prevent adversaries from probing or sabotaging its critical space infrastructure. It's effectively blind. And in such a volatile time, bad decisions or hostile activity can produce very bad outcomes. Consider China's rapid advances in orbital manoeuvring. Its satellites can now approach, inspect, and potentially interfere with other spacecraft. The US Space Force has described this as "dogfighting in space." For Europe, the message is clear: China is advancing rapidly and investing heavily. If we want strategic autonomy, we need to close that gap – fast. ### The Path to Strategic Autonomy The goal of autonomy, first proposed by EU policymakers over a decade ago, seems much less abstract now. It's what the CEOs of Airbus, Leonardo, and Thales are talking about: Europe needs its own space champion. Faced with war on its eastern border, widespread grey-zone aggression – Polish intelligence reports a Russian hybrid attack on NATO every two days – and shifting geopolitical interests, Europe must be able to defend its own interests, with or without support. Strategic autonomy also makes Europe a better ally after years under the US security umbrella. But mega-mergers alone don't bring strategic autonomy. Our autonomy rests on whether Europe can independently understand, monitor, and protect the space domain. That's what will enable Europe to detect, track, and respond to threats. It's not just about having bigger companies; it's about having the eyes and ears to know what's happening in the final frontier. And that's a mission no single company can accomplish alone.