Europe's Space Ambitions: Why Bigger Isn't Always Better

Jan de Vries · 2026-09-10

### The Push for a European Space Giant Imagine three of Europe's biggest aerospace companies—Airbus, Leonardo, and Thales—joining forces to create a single powerhouse. That's exactly what their CEOs recently proposed to Brussels. Their goal? To build a company big enough to take on SpaceX and other global players. "Without co-operation," said Lorenzo Mariani of Leonardo, "European industries will never reach the critical mass and the capability to really be worldwide champions." It's a compelling argument. After all, size often brings influence and resources. But is bigger always better? ### Scale Alone Won't Guarantee Sovereignty Here's the thing: creating a giant company doesn't automatically make Europe a space superpower. In low-Earth orbit (LEO), the real challenge isn't just having more satellites—it's knowing what's happening up there. With thousands of satellites, military assets, and debris zipping around, the ability to detect, track, and attribute activity is crucial. Europe has made smart moves, like investing in sovereign constellations and the EU Space Surveillance and Tracking (EU SST) partnership. The IRIS² constellation, for example, aims to provide ultra-secure communications and high-speed broadband. Poland has pledged around $745 million to its development, and Germany is considering its own military LEO constellation. Europe now holds 27.7% of the global space situational awareness (SSA) market, second only to the US at 42.4%. But despite these efforts, concerns remain. Without a clear picture of orbital activity, Europe risks being blindsided by adversaries or even accidents. As China advances its orbital maneuvering capabilities—what the US Space Force calls "dogfighting in space"—the gap is widening. ### The Blind Spot: Europe's Surveillance Gap Europe is, in many ways, flying blind. It lacks the comprehensive surveillance needed to protect its space infrastructure from debris, hostile actions, or even accidental collisions. In a volatile geopolitical climate, that's a dangerous position. > "In the absence of a clear picture of what is happening in orbit, Europe will struggle to prevent its adversaries from probing and even sabotaging its critical space infrastructure." Consider this: Polish intelligence reports a Russian hybrid attack on NATO every two days. With war on Europe's eastern border and China's rapid space advancements, the need for strategic autonomy has never been more urgent. But autonomy isn't just about having a European SpaceX—it's about being able to independently monitor and defend the space domain. ### What Real Sovereignty Looks Like True space sovereignty means having the capability to detect, track, and respond to threats in orbit. It's not just about launching more satellites; it's about protecting them. That requires advanced surveillance systems, robust cybersecurity, and the ability to make informed decisions quickly. Mega-mergers might create a larger company, but they don't automatically provide these capabilities. Europe needs to invest in the infrastructure and technology that ensure it can see what's happening in space—and act on it. So while the proposed merger is a step in the right direction, it's not a silver bullet. Europe's space sovereignty will depend on a combination of industrial scale, technological innovation, and strategic foresight. Without that, even the biggest company in the world won't be able to keep Europe safe in the final frontier.